onfocus

"Teachers don’t feel safe. Most parents said in a survey that they’re “very concerned” about sending their kids back to school. So why are we getting bullied into opening?"

School administrators are being forced to choose between the health of their communities and losing part of their funding. They shouldn’t be put in this position.

"Just as premature reopenings of bars, stores and restaurants ended up causing big Covid outbreaks and hurting business activity in many Sun Belt states, virus outbreaks on campuses could cause a stampede away from universities eroding trust in universities as responsible stewards of young people’s health and safety."

In the face of no good choices, I think colleges should prioritize the health of their communities.

"There are two key mitigation strategies for countering poor ventilation and virus-laden aerosols indoors: We can dilute viral particles’ presence by exchanging air in the room with air from outside (and thus lowering the dose, which matters for the possibility and the severity of infection) or we can remove viral particles from the air with filters."

Time to think about filtration and ventilation.

Let’s say we threw the kitchen sink at COVID-19 in the U.S. Let’s say we started now with the goal of being open for business in October— meaning schools, in person voting, sports, everything. If we did everything. What would happen?

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. Nice to see someone write out the logic of a new, stronger lockdown.

"A majority of Americans are concerned that reopening schools this fall for in-person learning will lead to a surge in new coronavirus infections."

Most people realize we can’t wish the virus away. This survey didn’t even ask for opinions about covid-19 testing in schools or how people feel about increasing funding for schools to take on these challenges. I think we should be talking about those.

"Relying on the self-control of young adults, rather than deploying the public-health infrastructure needed to control a disease that spreads easily among people who live, eat, study, and socialize together, is not a safe reopening strategy—and yelling at students for their dangerous behavior won’t help either."

We shouldn’t blame students when campuses start closing. The Oregon Health Authority just warned that test results are taking up to two weeks to come back. We know before opening that we don’t have the testing infrastructure in place to have an accurate, timely picture of spread.

"...parents and teachers would be wise to reject any invitation to unnecessary heroism. I don’t want educating my kids to be a heroic act of American defiance — I want it to be ordinary. And I’d rather not sacrifice my children’s teachers, either, so that America’s economy can begin humming once more."

Yes to all of this. We are still in a growing pandemic that we can't wish away. There hasn't been enough testing and mitigating infrastructure built to make opening safe.

"While college students may be less likely to suffer severe outcomes from Covid-19, college outbreaks do not stay on campus. They incubate disease and amplify transmission chains that reach and kill members of more vulnerable populations. To allow universities to open without testing is to replicate the error at the root of the feckless and incoherent federal response: ignoring the available evidence, hoping for the best, and planning accordingly."

This is a PDF of an article from the Chronicle of Higher Education shared by the author. It seems like a solid plan for virus surveillance should be a big part of reopening in the current environment, but I haven't seen much about that. Our testing capabilities (at least here in Oregon: Oregon’s COVID-19 struggles: Concerns over testing capacity and week-long waits for results) might not be up to the task.

"On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Just in the first two weeks of July, 393 kindergartens and schools open for summer programs have been shuttered due to cases of COVID-19."

This doesn't sound good.

"This work confirms that protective antibody responses in those infected with SARS-COV2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, appear to wane rapidly. Whilst longer lasting in those with more severe disease, this is still only a matter of months," Griffins said.

So much for herd immunity and/or vaccines? Yikes.

"New guidance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 40% of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and the chance of transmission from people with no symptoms is 75%."

Please wear a mask!

"We believe rushing to reopen campuses involves wishful thinking and magical thinking, reflecting the comforts from path dependence and status quo bias. While optimism is admirable, so are honesty and realism. Sometimes, defensive pessimism is more adaptive, appropriate, functional, helpful, and useful than unbridled positivity. We are only in the second inning of COVID-19, with testing extremely confusing and statistically unreliable. Rushing to reopen campuses offers only the illusion of safety. In contrast, offering an effective online alternative provides the reality of safety."

An essay from two law professors critical of plans to open college campuses. I really agree with the point I quoted here about the weakness of the positive thinking that seems to be the driving force behind all covid-19 planning.