onfocus

Data scientists look at the numbers:

As we’ve discussed, this math isn’t a certainty—China has already shown that it’s possible to reduce the spread by taking extreme steps. Another great example of a successful response is Vietnam, where, amongst other things, a nationwide advertising campaign (including a catchy song!) quickly mobilized community response and ensured that people adjusted their behavior appropriately.

As summarized in tweet form: "By the time the impact in your community is clearly visible, you've missed your best opportunity."

Oregon is between two known outbreak locations but can’t determine if it also has an outbreak:

"The state lab had just 130 tests remaining as of Monday night, according to an agency spokesman. That translates to about 65 people, given that it takes about two tests per person to diagnose the disease."

In the absence of accurate information I think state officials should assume the worst to protect people. Currently they’re using lack of known cases to justify their decisions.

This is a fascinating interview with World Health Organization's Dr. Aylward who recently visited China. He's optimistic about replicating their rapid response:

"China’s counterattack can be replicated, Dr. Aylward said, but it will require speed, money, imagination and political courage."

His take on whether or not to close schools:

Does that imply that closing schools is pointless?

No. That’s still a question mark. If a disease is dangerous, and you see clusters, you have to close schools. We know that causes problems, because as soon as you send kids home, half your work force has to stay home to take care of them. But you don’t take chances with children.

And on the cultural difference between the US and China:

Isn’t all of this impossible in America?

Look, journalists are always saying: “Well, we can’t do this in our country.” There has to be a shift in mind-set to rapid response thinking. Are you just going to throw up your hands? There’s a real moral hazard in that, a judgment call on what you think of your vulnerable populations.

Ask yourself: Can you do the easy stuff? Can you isolate 100 patients? Can you trace 1,000 contacts? If you don’t, this will roar through a community.

I've been reading all the Coronavirus things and this felt like hearing from someone who has seen the future.

Oregon students will not be staying home:

Oregon Department of Education Director Colt Gill: “Keeping schools open is the best option for our state and, most importantly, for our students. Our safety efforts should focus on practicing good hygiene, staying home when we are not feeling well, and cleaning surfaces in our schools. We can all play a part with these simple steps to protect ourselves and our friends, classmates and community.”

It sounds like the justification is that there are no existing cases. We also have a very low testing capacity in Oregon right now, so.

Preparing for the worst:

In particular, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.

Strain on the health system is why we should do everything we can to flatten this curve by slowing transmission.

"The University of Washington said it would move to online classes for its 50,000 students. With colleges nationwide about to empty for spring break, students fear they might not be coming back."

They’re planning to open their campus again March 30th.

This is a difficult article to read because it’s about a massive failure, but it’s important to face the truth of where we are. This was especially surprising:

"Oregon, situated between the California and Washington hotspots, can test only about 40 people a day."

We have some catching up to do:

"Today, more than a week after the country’s first case of community transmission, the most significant finding about the coronavirus’s spread in the United States has come from an independent genetic study, not from field data collected by the government. And no state or city has banned large gatherings or implemented the type of aggressive “social distancing” policies employed to battle the virus in Italy, Hong Kong, and other affluent places."

Time to quickly learn from the past.

"That is why, in my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts."

This article from 2017 is a sobering read.

"Seattle is effectively in the position that Wuhan was on Jan. 1, when it first recognized it had an outbreak of a new virus, but did not realize the scale of the problem or the speed at which the virus was spreading, Bedford said."

The lack of testing has really put us at a disadvantage.

This is a helpful look at how tech companies are responding to covid-19 through changes in policy and events. Great to see this leadership.

"Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperatures three times a day."

Unbelievable. This seems worse than incompetence.

welp.