onfocus

"...parents and teachers would be wise to reject any invitation to unnecessary heroism. I don’t want educating my kids to be a heroic act of American defiance — I want it to be ordinary. And I’d rather not sacrifice my children’s teachers, either, so that America’s economy can begin humming once more."

Yes to all of this. We are still in a growing pandemic that we can't wish away. There hasn't been enough testing and mitigating infrastructure built to make opening safe.

"While college students may be less likely to suffer severe outcomes from Covid-19, college outbreaks do not stay on campus. They incubate disease and amplify transmission chains that reach and kill members of more vulnerable populations. To allow universities to open without testing is to replicate the error at the root of the feckless and incoherent federal response: ignoring the available evidence, hoping for the best, and planning accordingly."

This is a PDF of an article from the Chronicle of Higher Education shared by the author. It seems like a solid plan for virus surveillance should be a big part of reopening in the current environment, but I haven't seen much about that. Our testing capabilities (at least here in Oregon: Oregon’s COVID-19 struggles: Concerns over testing capacity and week-long waits for results) might not be up to the task.

"On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Just in the first two weeks of July, 393 kindergartens and schools open for summer programs have been shuttered due to cases of COVID-19."

This doesn't sound good.

"This work confirms that protective antibody responses in those infected with SARS-COV2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, appear to wane rapidly. Whilst longer lasting in those with more severe disease, this is still only a matter of months," Griffins said.

So much for herd immunity and/or vaccines? Yikes.

"New guidance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 40% of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and the chance of transmission from people with no symptoms is 75%."

Please wear a mask!

"We believe rushing to reopen campuses involves wishful thinking and magical thinking, reflecting the comforts from path dependence and status quo bias. While optimism is admirable, so are honesty and realism. Sometimes, defensive pessimism is more adaptive, appropriate, functional, helpful, and useful than unbridled positivity. We are only in the second inning of COVID-19, with testing extremely confusing and statistically unreliable. Rushing to reopen campuses offers only the illusion of safety. In contrast, offering an effective online alternative provides the reality of safety."

An essay from two law professors critical of plans to open college campuses. I really agree with the point I quoted here about the weakness of the positive thinking that seems to be the driving force behind all covid-19 planning.

"And so, like countless other Americans, my family awaits the unveiling of our district’s plan for bringing kids back to school, which will be delivered over Zoom, because it’s not safe to hold a public meeting."

If we still can't hold public meetings, how in the world can we hold public school? I'm grudgingly coming around to this view. We need teachers and staff to be healthy and that means keeping them away from kids right now. As difficult as it is, I think we need to continue to have kids learn remotely until the virus is under control. I think that means we need an overhaul of work and school expectations but I don't see any movement anywhere that makes me optimistic that will happen in the next month or two.

"New students matriculating at schools offering fully online programs will not receive visas, per ICE. Students who are already enrolled at such schools will be required to transfer or leave the country."

The cruelty is the point.

"Hospitalizations and deaths are both lagging indicators, because it takes time to progress through the course of illness,” Caitlin Rivers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security told me late last week. “The recent surge started around two weeks ago, so it’s too soon to be confident that we won’t see an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths."

Interesting look at covid-19 data that seems contradictory at first.